Just Us

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230541
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Three, located between the southeastern Florida coast
and Grand Bahama.

A non-tropical low pressure area could form over the northern Gulf
of Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday. Thereafter, this system
has the potential to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
while it moves slowly eastward to northeastward over warm waters
through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Jul 2019 02:33:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Jul 2019 03:24:13 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

000
WTNT43 KNHC 230232
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032019
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

The depression has become less organized this evening.  Much of the
deep convection seen earlier in the day has dissipated, and the
cyclone currently consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with some
shower activity.  The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on
the earlier ASCAT data.

The system is moving northwestward at 9 kt, steered by the
southwestern periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.  A turn to
the north and north-northeast with a notable increase in forward
speed is expected on Tuesday as the depression moves in the
flow between the subtropical ridge and an approaching deep-layer
trough moving across the eastern United States.  The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one and keeps the center of the
cyclone offshore of the east coast of Florida.  This prediction is
near the multi-model consensus TVCN.

Significant strengthening of the depression is not expected given
its poor initial state and because it is forecast to move into a
region of strong southwesterly flow aloft by late Tuesday.  In
fact, the global and regional models all show the depression opening
into a trough within the next 24 hours, with the remnants of the
system becoming absorbed within a frontal zone off the southeast
U.S. on Wednesday.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous one and now shows dissipation occurring sooner, by
36 hours.

Direct impacts from the depression are expected to be limited to 1
to 3 inches of rainfall in the Bahamas and along the east coast of
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 26.1N  79.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 28.4N  79.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 31.7N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019

000
FONT13 KNHC 230231
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032019               
0300 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION JUST EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 the center of Three was located near 26.1, -79.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.