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000 WTNT41 KNHC 212033 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019 The cyclone has lacked deep convection since early this morning, and therefore it no longer qualifies as either a tropical or a subtropical cyclone. Dry mid-level air, the influence of an upper-level low, and marginal SSTs should preclude re-development. The cyclone is likely to dissipate in a day or so as it becomes absorbed into a frontal zone. Post-tropical Andrea has turned to the east-northeast and the motion is about 070/7. The system should move mainly eastward within the mid-level westerlies until dissipation. This is the last advisory on Andrea. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 30.8N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 22/0600Z 31.2N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1800Z 31.7N 62.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
000 WTNT31 KNHC 212033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019 ...ANDREA IS A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 68.3W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 68.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a turn toward the east is expected tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to dissipate by Wednesday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Pasch
000
FONT11 KNHC 212033
PWSAT1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019
2100 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH